What Will The Canadian Recreational Marijuana Market Look Like? – Seeking Alpha

Please note: All stocks and funds described herein trade on Canadian exchanges. Each has an OTC listing in the US, but I would encourage investors who are able to trade the underlying Canadian stocks to use those instead. Please be aware of liquidity issues when investing in OTC listings. All dollar figures herein are Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.

Summary and Thesis

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On July 1, 2018, recreational cannabis will be legalized across Canada. This was announced in March 2017, based on campaign promises made by the Liberal party during the October 2015 election. This legalization has led to a boom in cannabis stocks, as investors seek to pick a winner from this change of legislation.

I estimate total market size to be around $5.3 billion per year wholesale. Alternatively, I estimate the market size to be about $8 billion to 8.8 billion/year retail. It will take time for the market to mature and reach saturation levels, as it has in legalized US states.

I expect flowers and extracts to be priced as

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